Big Movers 2023

Overview

The Big Movers 2023 report, titled Regional Renaissance: A Rise in Migration to Regional Australia, presents a comprehensive analysis of internal migration trends across Australia between 2016 and 2021, based on the 2021 Census. Published by the Regional Australia Institute (RAI), the report highlights a significant shift in population from capital cities to regional areas, with a net gain of over 166,000 people—nearly triple the gain from the previous census period.

Key drivers of this migration include millennials (aged 25–39) and overseas-born residents, both of whom showed a strong preference for regional living. Millennials, in particular, reversed previous trends, moving from a net loss to a net gain in regional areas. The report attributes this shift to lifestyle preferences, affordability, and employment opportunities, especially in remote and industry-based regions.

Queensland dominated the top regional destinations, with the Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast leading in net migration gains. Regional Victoria and New South Wales also saw substantial inflows, while Western Australia and the Northern Territory experienced net losses.

The report categorizes regional areas into four types—Regional Cities, Connected Lifestyle Areas, Industry & Service Hubs, and Heartland Regions—and finds positive migration rates across all types for millennials and overseas-born populations. It also explores intrastate and interstate regional migration, showing high mobility within states, especially among millennials.

Policy recommendations include developing a national population plan, investing in infrastructure, tailoring migration programs for overseas-born residents, and aligning skills with regional job markets. The report concludes that regional migration is reshaping Australia's demographic landscape and calls for targeted, place-based policies to support sustainable growth.

Key Findings

• During the last Census (2016-21) regional Australia saw a significant increase in net migration from capital cities, with a net gain of 166,073 individuals – almost triple the net gain of the previous intercensal period (2011-2016). This shift overlaps with the first year and a half of the COVID pandemic.

• This shift was primarily driven by a notable increase in capital-to-regional movement.  614,144 people moved to regional areas from capital cities – a jump of 120,750.

• Melbourne and Sydney were the largest net exporters of people to regional Australia, with Sydney recording a 110,180 net loss to the regions - Melbourne 81,857. Adelaide saw a slight net loss. In contrast with Big Movers 2020, Hobart and Darwin also recorded net losses to the regions. Despite substantial population movement toward regional areas, Brisbane continued to see significant population net gain from regions of 24,403.

• Queensland dominated the Top 5 regional locations for attraction and retention by volume, with Sunshine Coast recording the largest regional net flow of 26,064, followed by the Gold Coast (24,862) and Fraser Coast (8,067) in fourth place. This is in line with the RAI’s Regional Movers Index, powered by Commonwealth Bank data.

• The largest movement of people remained within their state of residence, moving from cities to regional locations. More than 86.1% of regional Victoria’s capital city movers came from Melbourne. For regional NSW, 77.5% moved from Sydney and Canberra. However, for regional Queensland, only 51.3% of capital city movers were from Brisbane.

• The analysis of net migration rates within this report reaffirms that millennials and overseas-born residents show a strong preference for regional areas. Excluding regional Queensland, the net migration rates for these two demographics exceeded those of the total population in each region (See Figure 17). These shifts could have profound implications for regional Australia’s demographic structure.

• From a national perspective, with a focus on millennials (25-39 years), a remarkable turnaround in trend was witnessed, with a net loss of 37,179 young people from regional Australia to capital cities in 2011-2016, shifting to a net gain of 57,252 in the regions in 2016-2021.

• More than 54,000 more millennials left our capital cities for the regions during the last census period (2016-21), than they did during previous census period (2011-2016).

• Millennials in regional Australia are extremely mobile and showed a greater propensity to relocate than the overall population, with the regional NSW and Tasmania recording intrastate regional migration rates 13.2% and 14.6% respectively.

• In terms of the overseas-born population, the net gain in people coming from capital cities more than doubled from 19,191 in 2011-2016 to 42,543 in 2016-2021.

• Population churn within regions increased for the overseas-born, with 10,000 more overseas-born residents moving around regions in this census period. However, overall population movement within regions reduced to 183,434.

• Of all states and territories, regional Victoria saw the largest net gain of people totalling 61,787. This was followed by regional NSW with 54,839 and then regional Queensland slightly behind with a 53,299 net gain. Both regional Northern Territory and Western Australia saw a net loss.

• Overall, all regional types defined by the RAI - Regional Cities, Connected Lifestyle Areas, Industry and Service Hubs, and Heartland Regions (most remote LGAs), recorded a positive net migration rate among millennials and overseas-born residents. This reaffirms that these newcomers show a strong preference for varying regional lifestyles.

• Almost 20% of all millennials now living in regional cities (170,000) arrived less than 5 years prior from other areas. This significant internal migration change will impact the structure of regional communities and consequent demand for goods and services.

• Almost 16% of all overseas-born residents now living in ‘Heartland regions’ arrived in the last 5 years. Heartland regions represent some of the most remote areas of regional Australia.

• Millennials exhibited greater inclination to move to ‘Heartland regions’ compared to overall population and overseas-born population – with 154 LGAs in this group recording internal migration gains.

• LGAs across the east coast attracted and retained the largest number of new residents. However, remote areas like East Pilbara (WA) and tourist areas like Mansfield (VIC) also saw high net migration rates due to their unique industries and employment opportunities. These places saw high inflows of millennials and people born overseas.

Policy Recommendations

Recommendation 1
A National Population Plan is a critical policy action that will enable regions to adequately consider both current and future population and then strategically overlay the necessary infrastructure and services such as housing, childcare, education and healthcare to meet the growing demand

Recommendation 2
Many regions, particularly Regional Cities and Connected Lifestyle Areas close to metropolitan areas, have seen an acceleration in net internal migration. Feedback from regional leaders of these regions is that acceleration has strained social and physical infrastructure. For these high growth regions, substantial assessment and investment in infrastructure is needed covering transportation, housing, healthcare facilities, schools and digital infrastructure. Greater transparency and collaboration between the Australian and State/Territory governments would help coordination of necessary infrastructure to meet ‘placed-based’ needs, potentially using the new Regional Investment Framework as a vehicle

Recommendation 3
Millennials are clearly open to relocating to regional Australia. Developing more effective regional policies that encourage this cohort to settle in regional Australia should be considered; whilst seeking a better understanding of their career and lifestyle needs to further attract and retain. For example, developing place based liveability strategies that underpin this important demographic.

Recommendation 4
Overseas-born people also show a propensity to relocate to regional places. While new overseas migrants favour the largest cities as their first destination, secondary migration (from cities to regions within Australia) is growing. This is shown in the movement patterns of overseas-born people from their first arrival in a capital city to a regional place. Greater policy and program attention could be given to understanding this secondary migration as a way of balancing the settlement patterns of new overseas migrants across Australia. Furthermore, a dedicated regional migration program should be developed which addresses the diversity of regional Australia in comparison to our capital cities

Recommendation 5
Millennials and overseas-born migrants have a higher propensity to move to more remote places than the general population. Consequently, specific programs and policy levers could be considered to build awareness and to incentivise these groups to move to remote areas, particularly to fill current labour shortages.

Recommendation 6
Matching skills to demand in regional job markets. With the number of regional job vacancies reaching a historic high of 94,000 in October 2022 and remaining elevated throughout 2023, policies could focus on aligning the skills and qualifications of incoming residents with regional job opportunities and growth areas, especially young people and people born overseas. This approach would help maximise the economic impact of internal migration